SM Post
Since early March, energy prices have been rising and reaching a historic level. After the measures of April 2026, the MR is once again putting forward measures to the Government to protect consumers and lower prices at the pump and for trucks, notably the reverse ratchet mechanism.
The Government is monitoring the supply situation in real time. At this stage, it remains under control, and more than 90 days of oil product stocks are available just in case.
- We have reached a historic figure: €2.50/litre for diesel, €2.05/litre for petrol, €1.51/litre for heating oil. For gas, there is at this stage still nothing comparable to the prices seen in 2022 (up to €300/MWh in the height of summer 2022), but the price is around €70-75/MWh, that is +50% compared to April 2026. Electricity is following the same trend, at around €170/MWh. These are high and abnormal prices.
- The federal Government is constantly monitoring the supply situation for each energy source. We are in a period of price tension due to the replenishment of gas stocks in Europe (demand > supply), and demand for heating oil is following the same trend. In addition to the measures taken last April, the MR is once again putting forward the reverse ratchet mechanism, aiming to bring fuel prices down to the EU minimum taxation rate (a reduction of 29 cents/litre for petrol and 32 cents/litre for diesel).
Geopolitical tensions are having a global impact
The United States and Iran have been in conflict since early March 2026. The successive blockades and easings of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 11% of global maritime trade volume transits, including more than 20% of oil trade, are creating enormous uncertainty in the energy markets. In addition, in the other strait, near the Red Sea, damage caused by a drone attack on the pipeline carrying millions of barrels of Saudi production has further strained global oil supply. On 22 September, Saudi Arabia announced that transit via this pipeline would resume, at least partially.
Finally, it should be noted that in-depth attacks on Russian refineries have also resulted in the unavailability of these refined oil products (petrol, diesel, kerosene, etc.) on global markets.
As a reminder, from March-April there were attacks by Iran on Qatari energy infrastructure that produced liquefied natural gas (LNG), notably destined for Europe (10% for Europe, but roughly 16% of LNG for Belgium). Asia is particularly dependent on this Qatari LNG. Deprived of this supply, it is turning to other suppliers (which supply the EU), leading to a price rise across all global LNG markets. The situation is very tense, although prices have not, at this stage, reached the levels seen in 2022, with €300/MWh at the height of summer 2022.
Oil is covered by strategic reserves amounting to at least 3 months of Belgian imports. We have not drawn on these reserves. We even have more than 90 days of storage of crude oil and refined products. We are not facing a supply security problem at this stage. However, this does not prevent the price of a barrel from rising on the global market.
Considerable impacts on energy prices
At this stage, the Government continues to monitor very closely the prices of all energy sources. As a reminder, measures were taken in April 2026. The Government is examining whether further measures need to be taken given the historically high prices being observed.
GAS
In March-April 2026, the Dutch index (TTF – EU-level reference) stood at around €50-60/MWh. It is currently around €70-75/MWh. We are seeing the same trend as during the summer following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine crisis: European stocks are being replenished, and prices on the European and global markets are reflecting this.
Before the 2021 crisis, gas prices averaged €25/MWh, rising to €30 to €32/MWh in 2023-2025. During the 2021 crisis, prices of over €50/MWh were seen – as in January 2025 – and during Russia's invasion of Ukraine (February 2022), the gas price traded above €100/MWh for several months, with peaks of up to €300/MWh on the spot (intraday) markets during summer 2022.
OIL
For oil products, maximum prices at the pump have risen to unprecedented levels, reaching €2.5/litre for diesel (€1.78/litre => €2.25/litre as of 23 March) and €2.05/litre for petrol. For heating oil, we are at €1.49/litre. (€0.85/litre => €1.35/litre in April 2026).
At this stage, the government is ensuring that the programme contract plays its role: this programme contract has been in place since the oil crises of the 1970s and prevents the volatility of oil markets from causing overly abrupt movements for the end consumer.
To go further and better protect consumers, the MR is putting forward to the government the reverse ratchet mechanism, which aims to lower fuel prices (petrol and diesel) by several dozen cents per litre. In addition, the MR is asking that any increase in tax revenue (particularly VAT) be returned to taxpayers.
ELECTRICITY
We have known precisely since 2021 that the gas price often determines the electricity price on the European market. Thus, a rise in gas prices is passed through via the price-setting mechanism (merit order) to electricity prices.
As gas prices are high, electricity prices on the wholesale markets are rising and fluctuating between €160/MWh and €170/MWh. Since 2023, they had been fluctuating between €65 and €75/MWh, albeit with regular peaks of over €100/MWh. In 2022-2023, wholesale electricity prices could fluctuate between €180 and €250/MWh, with peaks of up to €400/MWh at the highest points.
Measures planned or under review
At this stage, the federal Government and the Commission for the Regulation of Electricity and Gas (CREG) are ensuring that the tools put in place in 2022 and 2023 are working. These notably include an automatic cap on gas prices if they exceed €100/MWh over a certain period.
The MR is once again putting forward to the Government the reverse ratchet mechanism, which aims to lower fuel prices (petrol and diesel) by 29 cents/litre and 32 cents/litre respectively. In addition, the MR is asking that any increase in tax revenue (particularly VAT) be returned to taxpayers.
Minister Mathieu Bihet and the CREG are monitoring in real time the security of supply, prices on the energy markets and the impact on end consumers. The CREG is closely watching to ensure that suppliers are not taking liberties with the regulations to the detriment of consumers.
In April 2026, the government adopted a series of measures as part of an €80 million package over three months, with targeted and temporary measures, to provide concrete help without budgetary overruns.
This involved direct support for workers. The home-to-work allowance was increased: the rise is offset at 20% (max. 10 cents/km) and is tax-free. At the same time, the professional mileage allowance was made more responsive, with an exceptional monthly recalculation over three months, before returning to the standard system (reference €0.4371/km).
Protection for vulnerable households was strengthened by accelerating the social tariff reform, maintaining indexation, and allocating €15 million to social energy funds, as well as postponing excise duty increases.
Finally, concrete measures supported the real economy: deferral or exemption of contributions for the self-employed, and targeted support for farmers through an increase in deductible expenses. At the same time, decisions are being made to secure energy supply (offshore, nuclear, gas) and encourage reduced consumption.