Business competitiveness, tariffs, wage indexation, unemployment… In an interview with La Libre, the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of the Economy discusses these topics in light of geopolitical events, as well as the government's measures. Excerpts.
What has changed in industry since the alarm bell rung at the Antwerp summit in mid-February? Everyone said it was urgent…
Things are moving at every level. At European level, there is now the Industrial Accelerator Act. Bart De Wever's message has been heard at European level. But we still need to work to combat Chinese dumping and unfair American competition caused by tariffs. We will also work on the energy standard with Energy Minister Mathieu Bihet. Labour market reforms are being presented this month.
The war in the Middle East is shaking up the economy. Does this change anything regarding the Arizona coalition's measures, such as taxes, to curb inflation?
It's clear that the events in Iran are shaking certainties. Donald Trump is announcing three weeks of operations, which is a long period of instability. If the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked for several weeks, it will have an impact on energy prices and the European economy, at the pump as well as on electricity. But Belgium has strategic reserves.
Trump threatened Spain with trade restrictions because the country refused to follow him on the strikes on Iran. Is this an unstable partner for Europe, one who disregards agreements?
With Donald Trump, today's reality isn't tomorrow's. But we need to stay pragmatic and calm. And we certainly must not fall into Donald Trump's trap, which aims to divide Europeans. If Trump attacks Spain, he's attacking the whole of Europe, that's the European trade rule. I've always been a friend of the Americans, with whom we share a culture, but Trump sees Europe as a bunch of “losers”, a dead weight that can be divided to be better ruled. We must not fall into that trap, otherwise Trump will play Europeans like puppets. We must stand firm, as we did over Greenland.
Pierre Wunsch, the Governor of the National Bank of Belgium, has stirred up the debate on wage indexation again, this time raising the possibility of limiting wage increases in declining sectors. Do you agree?
Indexation is good for purchasing power. It protects consumers from sudden increases in the cost of living. But indexation inevitably also brings significant costs and losses of competitiveness compared to neighbouring countries that don't have this mechanism. We could move towards a system with freer negotiation, but that's not on the government's agenda at the moment; the social partners are looking into it.
For those excluded from unemployment benefits this March, do you fear, as Minister of Employment, that many will end up relying on the CPAS? That we won't manage to get them back into work at all?
We estimate that a third of jobseekers will find work again. Another third, unfortunately, is unlikely to find work immediately, as these people are very far removed from the labour market. The last third consists of people who already have sufficient resources to cope with the situation: they may have assets or live with a partner who has a comfortable income. The figures we have at this stage seem to bear this out. The first wave in January was necessarily harder, since it involved the very long-term unemployed. It's therefore logical that fewer people find work again when they've been unemployed for twenty years.